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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."