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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.